Growth Driven By More than 600MN New Internet Users and Increasing Mobile Access, Wi-Fi expansion and Demand for Video Services
According to the 11th Annual Cisco® Visual Networking
Index (VNI) Forecast, Internet Protocol (IP) traffic will quadruple, year-on-year between 2015 and 2020. India’s Internet traffic in 2020 will be equivalent to 12 billion DVDs per year, 1 billion DVDs per month, or 1 million DVDs per hour. The Indian digitization transformation, based on the adoption of personal devices and deployment of machine-to-machine (M2M) connections will have a greater impact on traffic growth. Over the next five years, in India, there will be 1.9 billion networked devices, up from 1.3 billion in 2015, faster broadband speeds (average fixed broadband speed to increase 2.5-fold from 2015 to 2020 – from 5.1 Mbps to 12.9 Mbps) and the increased consumption of video. Collectively, these variables are expected to help IP traffic in India to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34 percent – as against a corresponding global CAGR of 22 percent.
Video services and content continue to be the dominant leader compared with all other applications.
In India, total Internet video traffic (business and consumer, combined will be 75% of all Internet traffic in 2020, up from 51% in 2015.
Key India Findings:
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Indian Internet traffic in 2020 will be equivalent to 249x the volume of the entire Indian Internet in 2005
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In India, IP traffic will grow 4-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth of 33%
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In India, IP traffic will reach 5.6 Exabytes per month in 2020, up from 1.4 Exabytes per month in 2015
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In India, Internet traffic will grow 4.4 fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth of 34%
o In India, busy hour Internet traffic will grow 7.2-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 48%
o In India, Internet traffic will reach 4.1 Exabytes per month in 2020, up from 946 Petabytes per month in 2015
o In India, Internet traffic in 2020 will be equivalent to 12 billion DVDs per year, 1 billion DVDs per month, or 1 million DVDs per hour
· In India, mobile data traffic will grow 12-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth of 63%
o In India, mobile data traffic will reach 1. 7 Exabytes per month in 2020, up from 149 Petabytes per month in 2015
o India’s Mobile was 11% of total IP traffic in 2015, and will be 31% of total IP traffic in 2020
o In India, mobile data traffic in 2020 will be equivalent to 77x the volume of the entire Indian Internet in 2005
o India’s mobile was 15.7% of total Internet traffic in 2015, and will be 41.7% of total Internet traffic in 2020
· India’s Fixed-Wifi was 38% of total IP traffic in 2015, and will be 34% of total IP traffic in 2020
o India’s Fixed Wifi was 52.6% of total Internet traffic in 2015, and will be 47% of total Internet traffic in 2020
· In India, IP video traffic will grow 5-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 40%
o In India, IP video will be 81% of all IP traffic in 2020, up from 63% in 2015
o In India, consumer IP video traffic will be 83% of consumer IP traffic in 2020, up from 68% in 2015
o In India, business IP video traffic will be 66% of business IP traffic in 2020, up from 37% in 2015
o In India, HD will be 49.8% of IP Video traffic in 2020, up from 19.3% in 2015 (68.8% CAGR)
· In India, Internet video traffic will grow 6-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 45%
o Total Internet video traffic (business and consumer, combined) will be 75% of all Internet traffic in 2020, up from 51% in 2015
o In India, consumer Internet video traffic will be 76% of consumer Internet traffic in 2020, up from 53% in 2015
o In India, business Internet video traffic will be 66% of business Internet traffic in 2020, up from 39% in 2015
o In India, Internet-Video-To-TV traffic will increase 7-fold between 2015 and 2020 (46.4% CAGR)
o In India, HD will be 62.0% of Internet video traffic in 2020, up from 26.8% in 2015 (71.5% CAGR)
o In India, Internet gaming traffic will grow 7-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 49%
· In India, there will be 1.9 billion networked devices in 2020, up from 1.3 billion in 2015
o In India, PCs will account for 2% (43.8 million) of all networked devices in 2020, compared to 3% (44.5 million) in 2015, (-0.3% CAGR)
o In India, Tablets will account for 2% (44.0 million) of all networked devices in 2020, compared to 1% (12.1 million) in 2015, (29.4% CAGR)
o In India, portable devices such as smartphones and tablets accounted for 17% of IP traffic in 2015, and will be 48% of IP traffic in 2020
o In India, 4K TVs will account for 18% (9.5 million) of all flat panel TVs in 2020, compared to 2.1% (246,025) in 2015, (107.6% CAGR)
o 69% of all networked devices will be mobile-connected in 2020
· In India, the average fixed broadband speed will grow 2.5-fold from 2015 to 2020, from 5.1 Mbps to 12.9 Mbps
· In India, the average Wi-Fi speeds from mobile devices will grow 2.2-fold from 2015 to 2020, from 3.3 Mbps to 7 Mbps.
· In India, the average Internet user will generate 6.1 gigabytes per month in 2015, up 21% from 5.0 gigabytes per month in 2014.
o In India, there will be 572,934 households (2.0% of all Internet households) generating more than 500 gigabytes per month in 2020
Key Findings & Milestones from Global Traffic Projections and Service Adoption Trends
1.) Stable growth in IP and Internet Traffic
· Global IP traffic is expected to reach 194.4 exabytes per month by 2020, up from 72.5 exabytes per month in 2015. The global annual run rate will reach 2.3 zettabtyes by 2020—up from 870 exabytes in 2015
o 2.3 zettabytes is equivalent to 12 hours of streaming music per day of the year per capita or 33 hours of ultra HD video streaming for each person on earth
· Busy hour Internet traffic is increasing faster than average Internet traffic. Busy hour Internet traffic will grow nearly 5-fold (4.7-fold) from 2015 to 2020, reaching 2.6 Pbps by 2020, compared to average Internet traffic that will grow three-fold over the same period reaching
Regional IP Traffic Growth Details
· APAC: 67.8 exabytes/month by 2020, 22 percent CAGR, three-fold growth
2.) IPv6 Adoption Supports Global Digitization
· Globally, 48.2 percent of all fixed and mobile networked devices and connections will be IPv6-capable by 2020—up from 23.3 percent in 2015
· Globally, 34 percent of total Internet traffic will be IPv6 driven by 2020. Globally, IPv6 traffic will grow 16-fold from 2015 to 2020, a CAGR of 74 percent
3.) Fixed Broadband Speeds Nearly Double
· Global broadband speeds will nearly double from 24.7 Mbps in 2015 to 47.7 Mbps by 2020
4.) Smartphone Traffic will surpass PC Traffic
· The way consumers and business users access IP networks and the Internet is shifting from PCs to mobile devices. By 2020, 71 percent of total IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices including tablets, smartphones, and televisions, compared to 47 percent in 2015
· By 2020, smartphones will generate 30 percent of total IP traffic, while PC’s total IP traffic contribution will fall to 29 percent
5.) Video Continues to Dominate Internet Traffic (with New Emerging Trends)
· Internet video will increase four-fold between 2015 and 2020
· Consumer Internet video traffic will be 82 percent of consumer Internet traffic by 2020—up from 68 percent in 2015
· Business Internet video traffic will be 66 percent of business Internet traffic by 2020—up from 44 percent in 2015
· Video surveillance traffic nearly doubled in the past year and will grow ten-fold by 2020
· Virtual reality traffic quadrupled in the past year and will increase 61-fold by 2020
6.) Service Adoption Trends: Residential, Consumer Mobile and Business
Online gaming will be the fastest growing residential Internet service, growing from 1.1 billion users in 2015 to 1.4 billion users by 2020
Mobile location-based service (LBS) will be the fastest growing consumer mobile service, growing from 807 million users in 2015 to over 2.3 billion users by 2020
Desktop / Personal videoconferencing will be the fastest growing business Internet service, growing from 95 million users in 2015 to 248 million users by 2020
7.) Global Wi-Fi Expansion
· Globally, total public Wi-Fi hotspots including home spots will grow 7X from 2015 (64 million) to 2020 (432 million)
· Globally, home spots will grow from 57 million (2015) to 423 million by 2020
· Expanded Wi-Fi access will enable a variety of scaling and optimization opportunities for network operators (more mobile offload, ubiquitous VoWiFi, smart cities, connected transportation and related IoT strategies). This trend also enhances quad play capabilities and provides additional access for TV everywhere services
8.) Consumer and Business Users Prefer Mobile Over Fixed networks
In 2015, Wi-Fi and mobile-connected devices generated 62 percent of Internet traffic (Wi-Fi: 55 percent; cellular: 7 percent; fixed: 38 percent). By 2020, Wi-Fi and mobile-connected devices will generate 78 percent of Internet traffic (Wi-Fi: 59 percent; cellular: 19 percent; fixed: 22 percent)
Cisco VNI Methodology
The Cisco VNI Global Forecast and Service Adoption study for 2015 to 2020 rely upon independent analyst forecasts and real-world mobile data usage studies. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco’s own estimates for global IP traffic and service adoption. A detailed methodology description is included in the complete report. Over its 11-year history, Cisco VNI research has become a highly regarded measure of the Internet’s growth. National governments, network regulators, academic researchers, telecommunications companies, technology experts and industry/business press and analysts rely on the annual study to help plan for the digital future.
Supporting Quote
Sanjay Kaul, Managing Director, Service Provider Business, Cisco India & SAARC –
“India finds itself in the middle of a digital revolution and, by 2020 Internet traffic will be equivalent to 249x the volume of the traffic in 2005, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 33% y-o-y. Much of this growth will be fueled by massive consumer adoption of personal devices and use of machine-to-machine connections. The continued increase of mobile data traffic, networked devices and M2M connections will impact healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing, retail, transportation and other key industries, substantially, as the next decade dawns. Considering this, network architecture must be programmed to meet the requisite demands and manage the data volume. Deploying advanced network infrastructure requires a next-gen approach to withstand the digital vortex.”
Cisco VNI Global Traffic Forecast Update Webcast
Cisco invites press, analysts and bloggers to attend a webcast featuring the Cisco VNI team reviewing the global impact of traffic growth for service providers and their consumer and business subscribers. The session is scheduled for Tuesday, June 14th at 8:00 a.m. (PDT) today and can be accessed by registering at Cisco VNI Complete IP Traffic Forecast Update (2015-2020).
Additional Supporting Resources
· Cisco VNI Traffic & Service Adoption homepage
